As of 2022, approximately one-third (31.7%) of Russia’s population could be classified as middle class, marking the highest percentage in a decade, according to Svetlana Mareeva, head of the Center for Stratification Studies at the Higher School of Economics (HSE). This figure represents an increase from 28.3% in 2013, 29.4% in 2015, 30.3% in 2018, and 30.1% in 2020. Despite being a modest growth, it seems promising in the current context.
The primary criterion for middle-class classification, according to sociologists, is financial capability. The HSE used the median income per capita as a more accurate reflection of the real situation and considered it an indicator of wealth stratification. According to the researchers, the income of a middle-class individual should be higher than 1.25 times the median (29,000 rubles per family member).
Sociologists also added two criteria to the income indicator. The first considers professional status, with highly qualified specialists, managers, and top-level executives deemed to have a more stable position in the labor market and society, resulting in more stable incomes and broader opportunities. The second criterion that reinforces an individual’s position is education.
However, when applying all three criteria together, the picture becomes less optimistic. Only 9.3% of Russians fall into the so-called core middle class, down from 9.5% in 2015. The rest are on the periphery. This strict concept somewhat contradicts data from Credit Suisse, which estimated that in 2015, there were 664 million representatives of the middle class worldwide, constituting 14% of the adult population. While there is a difference, it is not fatal.
Economist Vasily Koltashov commented in a conversation with GORUS, saying, “It seems to me that HSE studies often reflect the ‘Anglo-Saxon ideals’ of these people.” Indeed, beyond comparative income figures, the relative affordability of material goods is also crucial. Western criteria such as the mandatory consumption of paid medical services and education obtained abroad seem questionable in Russia. For the elites, this might be important, but the elites are sociologically less significant. Good hospitals, colleges, and universities should be available in one’s own country.
Sociologist Alexey Roshchin told “GoR” that the concept of the middle class was often central to the mainstream worldview accepted in the West but clashed with the Marxist perspective dominant in Russia. He emphasized the need to orient Russia toward common sense rather than foreign social ideas.
New Course under Mishustin
Surprisingly, only now, during active military operations, has the country finally begun to develop actively. In the first 11 months of 2023, Russia’s production of armored vehicles increased threefold compared to 2022, aircraft and, notably, drones doubled. Over 360 enterprises and around 37,000 pieces of equipment are involved, with over half a million employees working in factories, according to Prime Minister Mishustin. It recalls the new course of Roosevelt…
Currently, the development of the military-industrial complex is taking place in conjunction with the manufacturing and, particularly, the machine-building industry, explained economist Koltashov. The country is no longer pursuing a neoliberal course in trade and is increasing protectionism in the economy. Preferential treatment is granted only to friendly countries, such as Iran.
Koltashov notes that a new middle class is now emerging in the military-industrial complex and the machine-building complex. It includes many people who earn much more than workers in other sectors. For example, with a modal salary of 20-25 thousand rubles, a worker in the real sector, including the military-industrial complex, could have a salary of 150 thousand rubles. Another important social group is the Defense Ministry’s contractors.
They receive very decent money, especially for rural areas. Over time, the emergence of this new Russian middle class will “pull up” others, raising wages across Russia as competition for labor intensifies. People will remember that they have a mechanic’s diploma and leave the market for the factory.
In summary, Koltashov emphasizes that this is not the upper stratum of the middle class, but it is precisely this layer.
A new middle class is now being formed in the military-industrial complex and the machine-building complex
Photo: Stankoinstrument Association
Working Class Aristocracy
For quite some time, there had been no salary growth in sectors not related to military and near-military production. Wages remained stagnant, failing even to keep pace with inflation. Employers were complacent. Consequently, there was a sudden rise in inequality within the working class, notes Koltashov, marking a new phenomenon. However, as the economic upturn unfolds, the situation is bound to change.
The first signs of such changes are already evident. Among purely civilian professions, builders topped the charts with their income growing by an average of 69% this year. Second were installers with a 50% increase, followed by waiters at 43%. Millers began earning 38% more, followed by concrete workers at 37%, road workers at 36%, locksmiths at 34%, and carpenters at 33%. Doesn’t that sound like an elite?
It’s no surprise that a powerful growth driver like the military-industrial complex has pulled the entire economy along with it.
“In Russia, our GDP grew by 3% in the first three quarters, and by the year’s end, it’s expected to reach 3.5%,” boasted Vladimir Putin to his colleagues in the Eurasian Economic Union.
The president’s pride in the revived Russian economy, still weighed down by sanctions, and the increased wages is understandable. But it would be good to level the strata (layers) of society concerning incomes and through a change in the method of redistributing wealth. As long as the ways of owning and managing property remain as they are, it raises more questions than answers.
Despite sanctions and the soaring ruble, the economic revival, all the top Russian oligarchs continue to increase their wealth. In the first half of 2023 alone, they amassed an additional $32 billion. Earning is not a sin, of course, but when the majority of society loses while billionaires continue to amass wealth, something here seems off.
If changes have begun in the lower strata, isn’t it time to expect changes from the top? After all, this aligns with the president’s constantly promoted thesis of stability.
“The concept of the middle class is geared towards stability, is its foundation, and in this context, the existence of this concept makes sense,” points out sociologist Roshchin. “But if social strata begin to move—if those who were nothing become everything—then everything starts to look strange.”
It seems all this juggling of foreign meanings, inherited by the country from a previous era, is no longer required. The present comes to the forefront. In the economy, it’s the development of production, adequate compensation for workers, promoting real processes against speculation. In society, it’s relying on ordinary people, sturdy self-sufficient workers in their overalls, the heads of households, the hope of the country.
“They” call it the middle class, but for us, it’s the majesty of the people.
By Sergey Aksyonov