Western sanctions have breathed new life into the Russian aviation industry
The Dubai Airshow 2023 is currently underway in Dubai, showcasing Russia’s traditionally high-quality products in the military-industrial complex. The latest heavy transport aircraft, the IL-76-MD-90A, was presented at the airshow, with successful negotiations underway for its international deliveries.
Simultaneously, the passenger aviation sector is gradually reaching new heights, and that’s what we’ll discuss today.
Economic sanctions imposed against Russia were intended to cripple our economy. At least, that’s what the President of the United States, Joseph Biden, stated. However, Biden’s statements turned out to be wishful thinking, or as they say in Russian, the ‘wish list’ of the American elite. Russia’s economy has held firm and is on the rise, thanks to import substitution and the support of domestic production necessitated by those very sanctions.
Nevertheless, anti-Russian sanctions couldn’t and didn’t remain entirely painless. They have been most unpleasant in the realm of high-tech products. While the ban on purchasing, say, microelectronics can be bypassed through ‘gray imports,’ overcoming the embargo on the supply of Western airliners is almost impossible.
It could be observed last year that the long-standing neglect of the domestic aviation industry and the massive procurement of foreign airliners—primarily from industry leaders Boeing and Airbus—proved to be a mistaken decision. The free market of Adam Smith and David Ricardo, where each buyer has equal access to products, is far removed from the actual state of the global economy with its giant corporations, monopolies, and decades-long political constraints.
Russia, being the largest country on the planet, suffers from severely limited strategic transportation links and accessibility to all regions due to the lack of a developed civil aviation sector—be it short, medium, or long-range.
The majority of the fleet of Russian airlines currently comprises foreign airliners. While modern aircraft, with proper maintenance, can be operated for many years, the fleet of our companies will gradually shrink due to the wear and tear of the planes’ structures. There are also problems with importing the necessary parts for current repairs to Russia, especially aircraft engines. Furthermore, a significant portion of domestically developed aircraft, such as the Sukhoi Superjet, was assembled using imported components.
And so, in 2022, as a result of Western sanctions, projects for fully Russian-made airliners that were progressing somewhat unsteadily received a forced carte blanche. For short distances, the tried-and-tested Tu-204/214 aircraft will be used, and soon, the Sukhoi Superjet 100 (a modification of the long-flying aircraft from the Sukhoi company) will be equipped with entirely Russian components and two PD-8 engines. The engines were developed by JSC ‘ODK-Aviadvigatel,’ produced by ‘ODK-Perm Motors.’
Sukhoi Superjet 100
Photo: yakovlev.ru
The leading mid-range airliner (up to 6100 kilometers) in Russia in the coming years will be the excellent new MS-21 aircraft developed by the Yakovlev company. The MS-21’s design features enhanced aerodynamics, and modern polymer composite materials are used to lighten the structure. In 2023, the MS-21 was supposed to enter the passenger transportation market. However, due to sanctions, instead of foreign-made engines, it will use two domestic PD-14 engines, requiring additional certification. Therefore, the MS-21 will commence commercial flights only from the following year.
The MS-21 airliner will begin commercial air transportation in 2024
Photo: yakovlev.ru
The greatest challenge lies in the long-haul airliners sector, where global giants Airbus and Boeing currently reign supreme. For ‘premium league’ air transportation, wide-body aircraft are intended. They feature increased cargo capacity, reduced fuel consumption per unit of cargo compared to regular narrow-body aircraft, and can accommodate several hundred passengers. Considering the traditionally high percentage of fuel costs in air transportation, companies opt for wide-body aircraft for commercial flights. For instance, in Aeroflot’s air fleet, the Russian leader in long-haul routes, there are forty-one wide-body airliners from the aforementioned companies and none of domestic make.
Fortunately, Russia has made strides in long-haul aviation. At the end of October, the Il-96-400M (also known as the Il-496) airliner, designed by the legendary Ilyushin Design Bureau, made its maiden test flight. It’s an upgraded version of the Il-96-300 aircraft (particularly used by the ‘Russia’ special flight squadron for transporting the president and other state officials). The Il-496 features an elongated fuselage by 9 meters and 35 centimeters, accommodates up to 370 passengers in a two-class configuration, and has a maximum flight range of up to 8100 kilometers with PS-90A1 engines.
‘The new modernized version of the Il-96 aircraft will complement the lineup of UAC civil aircraft in the wide-body passenger airliner segment, allowing the market to offer, alongside the MS-21-310, SSJ-100, and Tu-214, aircraft of various sizes and ranges capable of covering the country’s entire route network and replacing foreign counterparts,’ said Yuri Slusar, CEO of the United Aircraft Corporation.
Nevertheless, the aviation industry, largely abandoned since Soviet times (it was in the Soviet Union that the world’s first wide-body aircraft, the An-2, was built), cannot instantly provide the country with the necessary quantity of technologically complex wide-body aircraft. The Il-496 won’t enter commercial operation before 2030.
The current version of the airliner has four engines, whereas the commercially successful versions of potential competitors—Boeing and Airbus—use two engines, which are noticeably more economical both in terms of fuel consumption (two engines consume 10-20 percent less aviation kerosene per unit distance than four engines) and in the realm of technical maintenance.
Russian aircraft designers recognize this issue, and the Il-496 is being designed with a new engine—the powerful PD-35. However, it will be ready only in seven or more years. The industry is occupied with more prioritized short- and medium-range aircraft at present, and in the coming years, the Il-496 will either be produced to order for the ‘Russia’ flight squadron or in the cargo version.
However, the need to provide transportation links to the Far East and the growing tourist flow to Southeast Asia will lead our country to address the issue of new long-haul aircraft by the end of the twenties. It can be assumed that the state will simultaneously try to accelerate the development of the PD-35 engine and subsidize Il-496 flights in the current modification to a commercially acceptable level.
Wide-body passenger airliner Il-96-400M
Photo: yakovlev.ru
In any case, it’s evident that the concept of purchasing goods for strategic industries on the external market has failed. Sanctions imposed against Russia in several parameters exceed similar Western sanctions used against the USSR during the Cold War era. It will take several turbulent decades before the world sees a new ‘thaw.’
We need our own hi-tech industry. The ideal scenario would be subsidizing such an industry in the initial years and achieving commercial viability subsequently. Supporters of the ‘free market’ have neglected protectionism for many years, resulting in the decline of domestic aviation engineering.
However, there is every reason to believe that in the coming years, the Russian aviation industry, as it was in the past decades, will become the main competitor of Western corporations.
By Alexander Averin