Since the beginning of the special military operation in February 2022, Russian cinemas have faced a mass exodus of Hollywood studios. Major distributors such as Disney, Warner Bros., Universal, Sony Pictures, and others suspended the release of their films in Russia, and some even ceased operations altogether. This resulted in viewers losing access to new global film releases, and the movie industry had to quickly adapt, filling the gap with domestic projects, as well as Asian and Turkish films. However, after 2.5 years, the situation is gradually changing: some cinemas are finding loopholes to show Western films, and audiences are increasingly asking when Hollywood blockbusters will officially return to Russian screens.
The first signs of a “thaw” appeared in 2023-2024, when some cinema chains began showing Hollywood films through parallel import schemes or by collaborating with countries that did not join the sanctions. For example, several Russian cinemas screened “Oppenheimer” and “Barbie,” imported through Kazakhstan or the UAE. This is not a full return to the previous distribution system, but rather semi-legal screenings that allow cinemas to retain part of the audience that misses Hollywood premieres.
The main question is: under what conditions can Western studios resume cooperation with Russia? Experts agree that the key factor will be the normalization of political relations between Russia and the West. As long as the sanctions regime remains in place, official distributors are unlikely to return, fearing reputational and financial losses. However, there are a few scenarios in which distribution could resume.
The first scenario is the resumption of dialogue between Russia and Western countries. If tensions decrease, Hollywood studios, for whom the Russian market generated hundreds of millions of dollars before 2022, may soften their stance. It’s important to understand that business is business: Russia was one of the largest film markets in Europe, and studios cannot afford to completely forgo such profits.
The second scenario is the creation of alternative cooperation schemes. Some films are already entering Russia through intermediaries, such as Chinese or Indian companies that buy the rights to films and then resell them to Russian distributors. If this scheme becomes widespread, Hollywood studios can save face (“We do not work directly with Russia”), while their products will still legally appear in Russian cinemas.
The third scenario involves piracy and gray-market schemes. Even if there is no official return, viewers will still find ways to watch Western films — through VPNs, torrents, or illegal cinemas. This is unprofitable for both cinemas and copyright holders, so in the long run, studios may find it easier to reach a compromise than to lose money.
When can we expect the full return of Hollywood films? Optimistic predictions say 2025-2026, if the geopolitical situation stabilizes. Pessimistic ones suggest not until the end of the current decade. In any case, the process will be gradual: initially, limited releases of individual films, followed by a softening of studio policies, and only then a full return to major releases.
However, even after the return of Western films, the Russian film market will not be the same. Over these years, audiences have become accustomed to domestic films, and some projects (such as “Cheburashka” or “Challenge”) have proven that Russian cinema can generate box office success without Hollywood’s help. Therefore, even when Western blockbusters return, they will no longer occupy 80-90% of screen time as they did before.
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