By the end of the year, inflation could decrease to 6-6.5%, stated Olga Belenkaya, head of macroeconomic analysis at Finam Group, in an interview with Izvestia.
Belenkaya noted that since the beginning of the year, the most significant price increases have been observed in the “borscht set” (a basket of vegetables used in traditional Russian soups), economy-class air tickets, construction materials, and tourism sector services. The rise in construction material prices is linked to increased demand following a boom in mortgage-financed home purchases. The price increases for air travel and tourism services are due to an imbalance between supply and demand, the expert explained.
She recalled that Central Bank representative Alexey Zabotkin mentioned at the Financial Congress that the inflation forecast would be significantly revised upwards at the July meeting of the Bank of Russia’s Board of Directors.
Zabotkin later indicated that the decline in inflation in Russia is expected to begin in August or September. The Central Bank hopes to achieve the target level of 4% by the summer of 2025.
Some experts believe that inflation in Russia will only start to decrease in the fourth quarter of 2024. This trend is expected to continue into 2025, with inflation potentially falling to 5.7% by the end of the first quarter.
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