In 2023, Russia’s GDP grew by 3.6%. The economic growth accelerated in 2024, with GDP increasing by 4.5% in May following a 4.4% rise in April. Over the first five months of this year, the Russian economy expanded by 5%.
However, starting from 2025, the growth rate is expected to decelerate, according to Oleg Vyugin, a professor at the Higher School of Economics, who spoke at the Financial Congress. The primary factor negatively impacting economic growth will be a labor resource deficit, which may not be resolved until 2030. The resources that have driven positive economic indicators over the past two years will be exhausted, creating constraints that will impede the acceleration of economic growth in Russia.
Additionally, technological limitations will persist, hindering improvements in labor productivity. Financial challenges also remain significant. These three factors combined will prevent the Russian economy from achieving high growth rates, the expert noted.
Other participants at the Financial Congress concurred with this assessment. They acknowledged that the labor resource deficit will indeed become a serious issue. Despite the anticipated slowdown in economic growth, the experts believe that its trajectory will not be worse than it was before the pandemic.
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